The Polls Were Accurate

And other observations from last night.

Against my better judgment, I stayed up last night to write this column and watch the results. Given that events move hour by hour, you will read this knowing what I didn’t know writing it. Keep that in mind. 

The Polls Were Reasonably Accurate

Polling showed Donald Trump and Kamala Harris neck and neck going into Tuesday. This bore out as the results trickled in. The results stayed close. Neither candidate decisively jumped out to a lead. In all likelihood, we are in for some period of litigation. 

Like Chris Stirewalt, I’m skeptical there are many “shy Trump voters” in 2024, and unlike in 2016 and 2020, Trump didn’t outperform his polling by surprising margins. This is important when we examine both candidate’s appeal. 

America is as Unhappy with These Candidates as You Are

For those inclined to be upset at the election and blame their country, keep in mind that the majority of Americans have been signaling for some time that they don’t want anything to do with this election, that they are unimpressed by the two candidates, and that they wish America had better leaders. I agree. You probably do, too. Nick Gillespie summed up my feelings on this matter, and he spoke for large numbers of disaffected citizens who see little to like in either party. 

Both vice president Harris and former president Trump have underwater approval ratings. A majority of Americans dislike them. For those inclined to question why we have a close election, this is why. Trump cultists and solid Democrats may have a hard time with this. Why, Democrats ask, is a moronic con man, an adulterer who tried to steal the 2020 election, doing so well? Why, Republicans ask, is a woman who struggles to speak in complete sentences and once favored eliminating all private health insurance doing so well? Each party could stand to look in the mirror. Your opponent performed well because your candidate is terrible and most Americans dislike what you have to offer. Responsibility belongs with you, not with American voters who hate both sides. 

With Malice Towards None

Joey Carrion beat me to it, invoking Lincoln’s second inaugural in exhorting all of us to forgive our fellow Americans. Writing in The Dispatch, Michael Zuckert also invoked Lincoln’s famous exhortation, “With malice toward none; with charity for all.” This message bears repeating. President Lincoln gave that speech while the Civil War, the deadliest war in American history, was still ongoing. He said that even after years of war had only hardened the irreconcilable differences between North and South which had led to the war in the first place. It’s tempting for us to dismiss Lincoln’s words, living as we do in benefit of hindsight and knowing that the North won the war and reunified the United States. 

However, it’s worth putting ourselves in the shoes of our forebears. If Lincoln was asking Americans to forgive men who had fought against them and killed their friends and family and neighbors, how much more easily can we forgive those who have merely voted differently from us? If we believe we have irreconcilable differences with our fellow citizens, how much more did North and South? Our disagreements today pale in comparison to slavery and secession. If Lincoln could forgive slaveowners who had fought against the United States to preserve an evil order of legalized oppression, we can forgive our friends and relatives and coworkers today. 

This message is complicated today by secularists who view Christian forgiveness as problematic (because without a just God who made all human beings in His likeness, some sins really as unforgivable). It is complicated by some who call themselves Christians, but who still haven’t forgiven Hillary Clinton for calling them deplorables and who will spend the coming weeks gloating and dunking on their opponents in unchristian ways. 

Forgiveness is high bar. It doesn’t come naturally. These days, many would like to use that fact as an excuse not to bother. But the standard set out by God and reiterated by Lincoln isn’t, “Work hard to forgive and do the best you can when reasonable,” but “forgive your enemies. Love those who persecute you.” This may be easier said that done. But it is required of us. “With malice toward none; with charity for all.” This is how we are called to approach the election results. Not, “as best you can, treat your neighbor without malice; only love your enemies when you get something out of it,” but “with malice towards none; with charity for all.”

This doesn’t mean we can’t have bitter fights. We can and we will. Whether next week or in four years, we will have the intra-right debate Kimberly Ross foreshadowed. But that can wait. When it comes, it may be a knock-down, drag-out, no-holds-barred fight, but still we must be charitable towards those on the other side and we must recognize that they are our brothers and sisters. 

Forgiveness requires having something to forgive. If the object of our forgiveness did nothing wrong, there is nothing for us to forgive. Lincoln was imploring Northerners to forgive their Southern brethren for the evils of secession, slavery, and war. Our opponents may not have started a war which killed hundreds of thousands of Americans. But we are still to forgive them the wrongs they have done. 

I believe that Donald Trump is the most un-American president in my lifetime. I think that to believe the words “march peacefully down to the Capitol” was anything other than an indication of Trump’s cunning knowledge of exactly what was about to happen, is deeply and profoundly naïve. I think that supporting a man who treats American institutions with disrespect indicates a carelessness towards the system which has made America the greatest nation on Earth. 

Conversely, I agree that Harris’s support for legalized murder under the guise of women’s health is immoral. I agree that Harris’s support for serious assaults upon the Supreme Court is as troubling when it comes to the rule of law and Donald Trump’s attempts to govern the executive branch “like a business.”

Remarkably, both sides dislike both candidates. If we are at all inclined to doubt the constancy of our fellow citizens, keep in mind that many of them are as painfully aware of the unpleasantness of the choice as we are, and that even many who voted for Trump or Harris did so reluctantly. Have grace and patience for those who did vote the way you did. 

The Election Wasn’t Rigged or Stolen

In the coming weeks, the losing side may claim that the election was rigged or stolen. This will be untrue. It will be nothing more than a coping mechanism snowflakes employ to pretend to themselves that their preferred candidate didn’t win, just as it was in 2020. Many of the people who allege it won’t believe it. Ignore these silly claims. 

Conservatism Lost

If you believe in free markets, limited governments, strong national defense, American patriotism, the rule of law, traditional Judeo-Christian virtue, individual liberty, American hegemony abroad, and fiscal responsibility, your candidate lost, because you didn’t have a candidate in this race. You will continue to exist in the wilderness, like the rest of us here. Perhaps within our lifetimes, there will be a conservative candidate again in the mold of Calvin Coolidge and Ronald Reagan. 

Harris Could Have Tried Harder to Win Conservatives

We heard a great deal of bleating from Never Trump types about the supposed moral stain upon those of us who refused to vote for either candidate, and this will intensify in the coming days. Let us be clear. Harris acted like she needed to make only the most half-hearted concessions to conservatives. Walz told Jon Stewart that they would accept Liz Cheney’s endorsement, but they didn’t really like the Cheneys. If they wanted to make a real play for the middle, Harris and Walz could have moved much harder in that direction and could have made deeper concessions to conservative voters. 

That said, they clearly thought this was what they were doing already. This is what you get when you live in a progressive bubble. Agreeing the enforce basic immigration laws is viewed as right-wing. Harris also worried that if she moved too far to the right she might alienate progressives. There’s a good chance exit polling will show large numbers of Arab voters going for Donald Trump just to spite the Democrats over Biden’s support for Israel. 

But the majority of the country is against government-provided transgender surgeries for illegal immigrants and antisemitic protests on lefty campuses. If Harris wanted to win decisively, she needed to do the work to persuade voters. Not to take their votes for granted because Donald Trump is a bad person and voting for him makes you a bad person so therefore all good people will vote for her (heck, many Democrats don’t believe that). Her failure to do more unscripted events and her inability to relate to voters as a normal human being harmed her here. 

There Will Be Another Election

Remember that there will be another election in two years. There will be another presidential election in four years. Perhaps we can hope that a weak president will give way to a new era of reform which puts more power back in the hands of the legislature and removes it from the executive branch. But that’s probably too much to hope for. 

Oh, and Trump Won

In a surprising turn of events considering the last eight years, Donald Trump will return to the White House. The erratic and at times imbecilic show will go on for another four years. He used the word “mandate” in his victory speech. This is silly and anyone who believes it isn’t thinking clearly. Trump won a narrow victory. He did win the popular vote for the first time. He did win all seven swing states. But back in my day, kids, we used to use the words “mandate” and “sweep” to describe elections won by tens of millions of votes, not tens of thousands. I suppose it was inevitable that whoever won was going to claim a mandate. It isn’t inevitable that we believe it.

Some will say that Trump has been totally vindicated by this victory. He has not. He will always be stained by the ignominy of lying about the 2020 election results and instigating a moronic coup attempt (don’t be naïve and tell me that “we’re all going to march peacefully down to the Capitol” was anything other than an attempt to create some plausible deniability). Winning a popularity contest with only one other option – an option disliked by more than half of the country – isn’t a vindication of that. Even if Trump’s second term is relatively successful, he will never scrub away the black mark from January 6^th, 2021. 

I am not optimistic about a Trump second term. I’m not even sure that his judicial picks will be reasonably conservative. Perhaps I will be wrong and we can once again enjoy deregulation, better border security, and an increase in the size of our Navy. However, just like last time, those will probably be more talk than action. Trump likes to make a half-hearted effort at something and then claim victory, and so I doubt he will do more for our Navy than stop the hemorrhaging, and I doubt he will make radical cuts to the size and scope of government. He didn’t even repeal Obamacare last time around. 

Still, the job for us will remain the same: dig deeper out in the wilderness. Criticize what is worthy of criticism and praise what is worthy of praise. Take any small victories where they come. Plan and build for a day, perhaps far in the future, when we will have a shot at returning to the political mainstream. 

Why Did Harris Lose?

Because Americans weren’t buying what Democrats were selling. I will probably be forced to write about this at greater length in the coming weeks, but Americans did not vote against Kamala Harris because they’re racist or sexist. The voted against her because they didn’t believe Kamala Harris would make a good president. I am inclined to think they are right. They voted for Donald Trump, a man I am inclined to think will also be a terrible president, but they decided he was the lesser of two evils. Democrats will be tempted to blame America as evil and corrupt, and to take the wrong lesson from this election. 

The lesson is this: moderate. Ditch the open borders, the transgender madness for kids, the “apartheid state” nonsense, and the climate apocalypticism. American voters are tired of the craziness from both sides. The sooner Democrats wake up to this, the sooner they will move to a place where they can govern (i.e., closer to the center).

Ben Connelly is a writer, long-distance runner, former engineer, and author of “Grit: A Practical Guide to Developing Physical and Mental Toughness.” He publishes short stories and essays at Hardihood Books. @benconnelly6712