DeSantis is Spinning His Wheels
DeSantis is Spinning His Wheels
Until we see movement in the polls, any movement, or until he notches a win in Iowa, there is no evidence that consolidating support to DeSantis will lead to victory against Trump.
My good friend and, dare I say, esteemed colleague, Benjamin Rothove wrote earlier today that Governor DeSantis’s performance in his debate with Governor Newsom yesterday has rekindled his belief in DeSantis’s strength in the GOP primary, to the point he argues that it’s time for the field to consolidate around DeSantis.
My opinion of the DeSantis campaign’s trajectory has been no secret. So, it should surprise no one that I find myself in disagreement with my friend. It is, however, a respectful disagreement.
I, admittedly, did not watch the debate yesterday. Putting up a Christmas tree and watching Mickey’s Christmas Carol with my kids was a far more enjoyable way to end my day than watching a debate moderated by Sean Hannity. In the aftermath, however, I surmise DeSantis did far better than he did in the Republican debates. But, unless his performance alters the present trajectory of the race, DeSantis has done nothing but spin his wheels.
The fact of the matter is that DeSantis is currently sitting at an average of 12% in national polls, down from as high as 40% in polls last February. DeSantis’s strongest state-level polling at present is in Iowa, the state where DeSantis is betting all his marbles, and in Florida, the state he currently governs. But despite his strong ground game in Iowa and his effective governance of Florida, he’s tied with Haley in Iowa at 16% and standing at only 20% in Florida to Trump at 60%. In South Carolina, DeSantis has fallen into an increasingly distant third place as Nikki Haley continues to build her support, and in New Hampshire, DeSantis has fallen behind even Chris Christie, garnering only 7%.
These are hardly numbers around which to call for consolidation. And, crucially, if the national polling is to be believed, DeSantis has shed 28% of his support since February. This means if he were to drop out today and every single one of his supporters went to Trump, he’d only be giving him half the support he’s already given up to him. So, I’m unmoved by Haley’s supposed inability to win over DeSantis supporters if he left the race given that DeSantis couldn’t keep his own supporters.
I personally fall short of calling for present consolidation around Haley (as George Will does), because I think the Haley or DeSantis question is still an open question for enough people that consolidation around either candidate is simply not possible yet. However, all the factors in the polling trendlines point to Haley having the only momentum any of the non-Trump candidates has had across the entire race. And until DeSantis can show some movement, any movement, in any direction but down in the polling trendlines or until he can defy predictions by winning Iowa, I won’t be convinced he’s doing anything but spinning his wheels at the end of a failed campaign.
Rather than arguing for consolidation around any given candidate when such a consolidation simply isn’t going to happen, we should be calling for what Erick Erickson is calling for: a DeSantis/Newsom-style debate between Haley and DeSantis. Because right now, it is a head-to-head race between Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis, and there will be no consolidation around either candidate until one of them wins and one of them loses this crucial race to become the consensus challenger to Trump.
Justin Stapley received his Bachelor’s Degree in Political Science from Utah Valley University, with emphases in political philosophy, public law, American history, and constitutional studies. He is the Founding and Executive Director of the Freemen Foundation as well as Editor in Chief of the Freemen News-Letter. @JustinWStapley
Great points and I love this point counterpoint here between Justin and Benjamin. As an RDS supporter I have to confess to being more on the Justin side. The more the electorate sees of RDS, the more he falls. And the problem with the RDS supporters will go to Trump? Thinking they are already there. As noted I like RDS but if he drops, it is to Haley I would journey.
And here is a point I made in he comments on the Benjamin article with a little twist, the beer question. It is an infantile approach to politics to say you vote for which you would rather share a beer, but go down through the past 9 or 10 presidential elections and it seems to work! The beer question is really a euphemism for charisma, and Haley has more of it.
I just took a quick look at the RCP polling average. Were the entire non-MAGA base to consolidate around a single candidate, it would total around 33 percent; Trump is at 62 percent. It's hard to see anyone in the field overcoming that advantage, no matter who it is or what the GOP donor class tries to do.
It's Trump because Trump is the guy they want. He's the embodiment of all their grievances. It's an emotional connection no amount of political tradecraft can break.