I largely agree. I’d love the idea of a center-right third party stealing the show but I just don’t see it happening.
“ The Whig Party had already imploded from irreconcilable differences in their own membership.”
Those like Walsh will point out that that is exactly what they’re saying should happen to the Republicans. However, I will point out that 1. It took years for the Whig Party to fully die and the Republican Party to fully replace it. And 2. The Whig Party was nowhere near as entrenched or established in 1850 as the Republican Party is today.
I have a hard time taking Walsh seriously, but there are others who are more serious than him who are making this argument so it’s worth taking it seriously. You do a good job here of explaining seriously why it’s - at present - untenable. Unless there’s a major black swan event that changes political reality, the Republican Party will remain in some form. I agree that the Democrats are not offering a good alternative (certainly not a conservative one).
I think Youngkin represents the type of Republican we should look for as a bridge between the current party and a future post-Trump party that’s more likely to move back in line with the Liz Cheneys and the Ben Sasses of this world.
When it comes to the GOPs expected demise, I think there's a lot of passion, anger, and wishcasting going on, most of it fueled by the deceptive nature of Twitter political engagement. My response has been 1) if a credible third party alternative were going to rise in this political atmosphere it would have been during the Trump presidency and not after it, the political dynamic already shows signs of normalizing post-Trump and he's simply not the wedge issue that he was and 2) if the Republican Party was going to collapse it would have been in January 2021 in the aftermath of January 6th.
In a lot of state level legislation, the government has stepped in to essentially manage the elections and, yes, that has essentially written the two parties into our election law. In Utah, for example, the GOP has a primary/caucus hybrid system that was essentially created by state law rather than by the party's decisions. Even more so than in the past, the Republican Party would need to literally go away completely so that another party could be placed in its stead in order for there to be an alternate viable conservative party. And that would require a monumental effort that would have little chance of success. As I point out in the newsletter, either way you have to make a persuasive argument to the same bloc of voters, so the greater return on investment is to make this persuasive argument from within the GOP and fight for a renewal of values and principles rather than trying to tear down the institution.
Yeah that’s what I thought. And why I agree with your newsletter, as distasteful as it might be to try to reform the GOP.
In a way, the impulse to go third party is similar to the impulse to split up the US. It’s the flight (as opposed to fight) response: let’s just have nothing to do with the people we don’t get along with instead of trying to work within the system.
In my local Republican County party leadership there a just enough right wing supporters that the center-right are being browbeat due to lack of involvement. The good news is those elected to State office are conservative republicans. I guess it is safe to say the Joe Walsh types are mostly just noise makers that are hurting the other republicans with their negativity and unsubstantiated complaining of current elected republicans.
This is the real crux of the issue. The populists and nationalists that the Joe Walsh types are adamant populate the entire Republican Party are actually a small but loud faction within the party membership, but the narratives we're contending with have led traditional conservatives both within and without the party to believe they're a smaller faction than they actually are. And, as you point out, this leads to a lack of involvement or, at the least, a passive involvement. What frustrates me about the efforts of the Joe Walsh types is that they are actively solidifying the narrative that the die hard Trumpists want people to believe. They don't want the broad center-right to engage in the GOP because they know they only maintain the wheels of power if the "RINOs" voluntarily surrender the party to them.
I largely agree. I’d love the idea of a center-right third party stealing the show but I just don’t see it happening.
“ The Whig Party had already imploded from irreconcilable differences in their own membership.”
Those like Walsh will point out that that is exactly what they’re saying should happen to the Republicans. However, I will point out that 1. It took years for the Whig Party to fully die and the Republican Party to fully replace it. And 2. The Whig Party was nowhere near as entrenched or established in 1850 as the Republican Party is today.
I have a hard time taking Walsh seriously, but there are others who are more serious than him who are making this argument so it’s worth taking it seriously. You do a good job here of explaining seriously why it’s - at present - untenable. Unless there’s a major black swan event that changes political reality, the Republican Party will remain in some form. I agree that the Democrats are not offering a good alternative (certainly not a conservative one).
I think Youngkin represents the type of Republican we should look for as a bridge between the current party and a future post-Trump party that’s more likely to move back in line with the Liz Cheneys and the Ben Sasses of this world.
When it comes to the GOPs expected demise, I think there's a lot of passion, anger, and wishcasting going on, most of it fueled by the deceptive nature of Twitter political engagement. My response has been 1) if a credible third party alternative were going to rise in this political atmosphere it would have been during the Trump presidency and not after it, the political dynamic already shows signs of normalizing post-Trump and he's simply not the wedge issue that he was and 2) if the Republican Party was going to collapse it would have been in January 2021 in the aftermath of January 6th.
Exactly. Last January (2021, not 2020 - haha I knew that’s what you meant), was the most fragile moment for them.
Also, correct me if I’m wrong but isn’t the GOP (as well as the Democratic Party), written into election law? For debates and campaign finance etc.
In a lot of state level legislation, the government has stepped in to essentially manage the elections and, yes, that has essentially written the two parties into our election law. In Utah, for example, the GOP has a primary/caucus hybrid system that was essentially created by state law rather than by the party's decisions. Even more so than in the past, the Republican Party would need to literally go away completely so that another party could be placed in its stead in order for there to be an alternate viable conservative party. And that would require a monumental effort that would have little chance of success. As I point out in the newsletter, either way you have to make a persuasive argument to the same bloc of voters, so the greater return on investment is to make this persuasive argument from within the GOP and fight for a renewal of values and principles rather than trying to tear down the institution.
Yeah that’s what I thought. And why I agree with your newsletter, as distasteful as it might be to try to reform the GOP.
In a way, the impulse to go third party is similar to the impulse to split up the US. It’s the flight (as opposed to fight) response: let’s just have nothing to do with the people we don’t get along with instead of trying to work within the system.
In my local Republican County party leadership there a just enough right wing supporters that the center-right are being browbeat due to lack of involvement. The good news is those elected to State office are conservative republicans. I guess it is safe to say the Joe Walsh types are mostly just noise makers that are hurting the other republicans with their negativity and unsubstantiated complaining of current elected republicans.
This is the real crux of the issue. The populists and nationalists that the Joe Walsh types are adamant populate the entire Republican Party are actually a small but loud faction within the party membership, but the narratives we're contending with have led traditional conservatives both within and without the party to believe they're a smaller faction than they actually are. And, as you point out, this leads to a lack of involvement or, at the least, a passive involvement. What frustrates me about the efforts of the Joe Walsh types is that they are actively solidifying the narrative that the die hard Trumpists want people to believe. They don't want the broad center-right to engage in the GOP because they know they only maintain the wheels of power if the "RINOs" voluntarily surrender the party to them.
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